Alves (27 years old) is a perennial contender. He's been considered a top fighter since beating Karo Parisyan and Matt Hughes in consecutive fights in 2008. He has since unsuccessfully challenged Georges St. Pierre for the UFC title, and lost to Jon Fitch, the man universally considered the No. 2 welterweight in the world. Out of the ring, Alves has had his share of issues. While he was preparing for the fight with Fitch, a potentially life-threatening brain blood vessel anomaly postponed the bout four times. He's also struggled with making weight, blowing the weigh-ins at UFC 85 and 117. He had no trouble making weight in his last fight against John Howard at UFC 124. He didn't struggle much with Howard either, winning a unanimous decision.
The UFC 130 undercard will feature former #1 UFC welterweight contender Thiago Alves against Rick “Horror” Story. Thiago “Pitbull” Alves, 18-7, is still regarded as a top-10 contender but has been instilled as a slight 2-1 UFC odds favorite over the streaking Rick Story, 12-3. The power hitting Alves is looking for another title shot at Georges St. Pierre and will face a stiff contender in the fiery Rick Story. Below is a closer look at this welterweight match-up with a free UFC 130 predictions selection. The Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story Fight Odds have Alves as a -200 favorite at .
Thiago Alves is a “public” fighter that commands added juice to his betting number but he should get by the hittable Story. The stocky 5’9”Alves is shrinking down to his more natural 170 Lb. weight division where his power/striking combo is deadly. The 5’10” Story is a rising prospect in the UFC with well-rounded skills but he will come up short against the more explosive Alves. Story is a game competitor with a big gas tank but Alves will score with enough strikes to notch a decision. The Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story Fight Odds have Story at +160.
After losing his UFC debut in 2009, Ricky Story reeled off five straight UFC wins. Wins included defeating fan-favorite Dustin Hazelett at UFC 117 and then taking a unanimous decision over previously-undefeated Johny Hendricks. Experts consider that the most impressive mark on his resume thus far. Alves will present another big test for Story and a win here will make his name even more recognizable in the UFC hierarchy.
This bout should come down two things: Story's ability to hang with Alves on the feet and Story's ability to put Alves on his back and keep him there. If Story can accomplish both of these things, I like his chances to pull off the upset. That sounds obvious, but in UFC the obvious it what decides these matches. If Story cannot do those things, it will be a long night for him.
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